What determines the content and nature of public policies?

The AB86 regional consortia system does not include funding for Older Adult Education and Parent Education.  

The California Department of Education’s 2011 “Linking Adults to Opportunity” report on adult education has an excellent section on the “ripple effects” of adult education.  These effects included better community health, greater school success for children, stronger families, and reduced recidivism. Adult school programs for older adults and adults with disabilities, along with parent education and family literacy classes, contribute to these “ripple effects” just as much  as workforce preparation,  programs, and perhaps more.  The state of California should continue to fund these programs, so that our communities can continue to reap the benefits. (Save Your Adult School blog post, written by Kristen Pursley on 5/10/13)

DEMOGRAPHICS OF CALIFORNIA’S SENIOR POPULATION

Compiled by California Commission on Aging

California’s population age 60 and over has grown rapidly throughout this century (see Table 1). Between 1950 and 2000, older adults in this state increased from 1.6 million to 4.7 million, an increase of 194 percent. This trend will continue as the cohort age 60 and over grows to 12.8 million by 2050, an increase of 172 percent from 2000.

Table 1

California Population Growth

Age 60 and Over

(in millions, rounded)

The largest growth rate will occur during the next 30 years as the Baby Boomers, those born between 1946 and 1964, reach age 60. The first wave of Baby Boomers will turn 60 between 2000 and 2010, contributing to a 36 percent increase in California’s older adult population during this decade. By 2010, nearly 16 percent of Californians will be age 60 or older.

Table 2

Projected Growth in Population Age 60 and Over

2000-2040

By Age Groups

Age Range	Total Population (2000 Census)	Total Population (2010 DoF Projections)	Total Population (2040 DoF Projections)	Total Population Change	Percent Change
60-64	1,146,841	1,944,211	2,579,283	1,432,442	125%
65-69	984,535	1,388,990	2,488,577	1,504,042	153%
70-74	903,288	1,033,176	2,286,549	1,383,261	153%
75-79	779,347	799,244	1,960,630	1,181,283	152%
80-84	502,831	615,927	1,430,462	927,631	184%
85+	425,657	629,241	1,297,890	872,233	205%
Totals	4,742,499	6,410,789	12,043,391	7,300,892	154%

Table 3

A Snapshot of Older Californians Age 65+ 2000

With high school diploma or higher1	70.1%
Limited English proficiency2	16.9%
Medi-Cal beneficiaries2	20%
Below poverty level2	8.1%
Poor or near poor (0-199% of poverty)2	28.6%
Homeowners5	74.5%
Living alone2	26%
Women age 65+ living alone6	31.4%
Living in a nursing home2	3.2%
Number of grandparents responsible for basic needs of grandchildren3	294,969
Proportion of Californians age 75 and older with a driver’s license4	59.6%
Percent with any disability2	42.2%

Table 4

California’s Projected Population Age 60+ as a Percent of Total Population by Race and Ethnicity

Racial/Ethnic Group	2005	2010	2020	2030	2040
White/Non-Hispanic	64.2%	60%	52.7%	44%	36.1%
Hispanic/Latino	16.6%	18.8%	23.5%	30%	37.5%
Asian	11.6%	13%	14%	15.6%	16.8%
Black/African American	5.5%	5.6%	5.7%	5.7%	5.3%
Multiracial	1.1%	1.3%	1.5%	1.6%	1.6%
American Indian/Alaska Native	0.7%	0.8%	1.2%	1.5%	1.8%
Native Hawaiian/Other Pacific Islander	0.2%	0.3%	0.3%	0.4%	0.5%

Source: State of California, Department of Finance. Race/Ethnic Population with Age and Sex Detail, 2000-2050, Sacramento, CA. May 2004.

In the late 1990s, California’s White, non-Latino population became a minority group for the first time since the 1849 Gold Rush. California’s older adults are and will continue to grow ethnically and culturally diverse. While 64 percent of older adults are White/non-Latino today, by 2040, the majority will be from groups now considered to be ethnic minorities.

Age Distribution in California

• California’s anticipated population growth by 2020: 172 percent.
• By 2020, the population of seniors age 85 and older is expected to increase by 200 percent.
• In 2004, 5.1 million Californians were over age 60, representing 14.4 percent of the total 35.9 million state population. Of that number, 1.3 million were over age 75 and 500,000 were age 85 and over.
• By 2050, life expectancy in California is expected to increase from 78.8 to 84.2.

Gender Demographics

• Currently at and below age 45, males outnumber females by 5 percent. By age 65, females outnumber males by 40 percent and by three-to-one at age 90.
• In 2004, the ratio of women over 60 to men over 60 was 128/100.
• Older women are at increased risk of poverty, poor health, and social challenges due to their longer lifespan.
• The gender gap is expected to decline by 2050, with the gap between men and women dropping to just 14 percent at age 65 and falling to 50 percent in Californians over 90.

Racial Demographics

• In 2004, California’s minority population represented 35 percent of the state’s total.
• With the growth anticipated by 2020, the largest change in the state’s aging ethnic population will be in the population of older Hispanic and Asian Americans.
• A three-fold increase is anticipated by 2020 in the older Hispanic population, making this the largest ethnic group of California seniors.
• Growth of the non-Hispanic white population is expected to increase by 50 percent.
• A change of only 1 percent -- from 5 percent to 6 percent -- is projected in the population of non-English speaking seniors.

Income and Poverty Rates

• The average income of elderly Californians is about $25,500.
• U.S. natives living in California received approximately $6,000 more per year in income during 2000 than U.S. natives nationwide, and foreign-born Californians’ income was approximately $6,000 less than the national average.
• California poverty rates are lower than in other states; however, poverty rates have increased since 1990 in all but the oldest cohort (those 85 and over).
• Approximately 13 percent of California seniors were employed in 2003, with 20 percent of seniors’ incomes coming from their own earnings.
• Many older Californians are expected to work beyond age 65 due to inadequate savings.
• Social Security accounts for 28 percent of older Californians’ incomes.
• Between 2020 and 2050, the percentage of older Californians with a higher education is expected to remain static, in contrast to an expected 20 percent to 24 percent increase in seniors without a high school diploma.

Health and Disability

• Disability rates among older Californians and elders nationwide is decreasing.
• Currently 17 percent of elders are unable to perform basic self-care functions; the number is expected to drop to 12 percent by 2030.

Housing Needs

• In 2000, 58 percent of California’s seniors resided with a spouse, 25 percent lived alone, 14 percent lived in a family setting and 2.5 percent lived in a nursing facility.
• 82 percent of elders living outside of an institution owned their own homes in 2000; 18 percent rented their homes.
• Home ownership among the elderly is expected to rise from about 3 million to 9 million by 2050 in relation to the general population increase.
• Nursing home occupancy is expected to double by 2050 (from 90,000 in 2000 to approximately 170,000).

Geographic Location

The Los Angeles Basin and the San Francisco Bay Area are now home to about two-thirds of the state’s older population and that will likely continue over the next 40 years. While every region, except the most rural areas of the state, is expected to experience strong growth in its 60+ population, the largest increases are predicted for the Los Angeles Basin and the San Joaquin Valley, where the number of older people is expected to almost triple by 2040.

Currently, the age dependency ratio does not vary much by region. The exception is the Sacramento Valley-North Coast-Mountain region, which has 25 seniors per 100 working-age adults compared to the state average of 18 per 100. By 2040, the rapidly aging Bay Area population is projected to become the oldest area of the state, with 41 older adults per 100 working-age adults.

Information derived from:

Strategic Plan for an Aging California Population; Getting Ready for the “Baby Boomers,” California Health and Human Service Agency, October 2003

California State Plan on Aging 2005-2006, California Health and Human Service Agency

Fault Lines in the Shifting Landscape; the Future of Growing Older in California-2010, Institute for the Future and the Archstone Foundation, November 1999

State Profiles, National Aging Program Information System, Administration on Aging

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PARENT EDUCATION

The goal of  the National Scientific Council on the Developing Child is to bring credible and accurate knowledge to bear on public decision-making that affects children's learning, behavior, and health.

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